Editor’s Note: This is the second installment of the Darsch Report. Find last week’s, with an explanation of our goal with this, here.
Let’s Get Right Into the News
Hello and welcome to the second installment of the weekly Darsch Report. This article will be providing some of the news for the week of Oct 29-Nov 4.
It was a pretty good time for the US economy this week in multiple areas. In the stock market, the Dow Jones increased by +582.52 points, or +2.36%, from its Oct 26th close of 24,688.31. The S&P 500 increased by +64.37 points, or +2.42%, from its Oct 26th close of 2,658.69 and the NASDAQ increased by +189.78 points, or +2.65%, from its Oct 26th close of 7,167.21. Decent showings from the stock market overall, but many traders still fear further interest rate increases by the FED as well as no immediate resolution to the US-China trade war and the slowing down of China’s economy.
Not all is grim for the US economy though as the jobs report and wage growth figures for the month of October have been revealed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages grew by an impressive +3.1% in the month of October, the best wage growth in 9 years, as well as an estimated +250,000 jobs being added to US payrolls easily beating the expected number of +190,000 that was estimated by economists. The unemployment rate continues to remain at 3.7%, a 49 year low, and inflation is still hovering around 2% meaning that wages are now rising faster than inflation.
On Tuesday, October 30th, in an interview with Axios on HBO, President Trump stated that in the near future he will be issuing an executive order to get rid of birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants. The move would be a big step for advancing Trump’s immigration policies but runs the risk of being considered unconstitutional. If Trump does indeed issue the order it will most likely be shot down if it goes to the Supreme Court as it is presidential overreach. But, the issue of whether Trump is right or not in his interpretation is a whole other matter. Until the Supreme Court rules on it, we can only speculate as to what they would say but considering that we have a majority conservative court, the original intent behind the 14th amendment and that the court has never given a binding ruling on the issue, the court may rule in Trump’s favor. I’ve already written a more detailed article about this.
On Sunday, November 4th, the people of New Caledonia voted in a referendum to determine whether or not they are to become a sovereign and independent nation. The final vote tallied to 56.4% voting no, 43.6% voting yes with a voter turnout rate of 80.63%. This is much closer than any recent polling had predicted with the most recent poll from Harris Interactive (Sep 12-22, 2018) showing that about 66% of the populace would vote against and 34% would vote in favor of independence. Regardless, the outcome is the same and New Caledonia shall remain a territory of the French Republic for now. I say “for now” because the people of New Caledonia will have two more chances to vote in favor of independence in 2020 and 2022 as long as one third of the Congress of New Caledonia agree to allow the vote to be held. Until then we will just have to wait and see how the people of New Caledonia will react to continuing to be a part of France.
For our last story of the day I will be going into some detail about some of the things going on in Europe right now. As of October 31st, politicians from the countries of Poland and Greece are demanding that Germany pay them about $1.18 trillion with $843.6 billion going to Poland and $340.9 billion going to Greece. The money is being demanded as payment for the damages and atrocities Nazi Germany committed while at war with and occupying these two countries. The demands would be equivalent to roughly a third of the entire GDP of Germany and (assuming a one-time payment) could potentially put Germany in a bankruptcy situation as the demands would increase Germany’s debt-GDP ratio from 64.1% to about 96.3%. If in a scenario where Germany would be able to pay these reparations over the course of 50 years it would completely get rid of Germany’s budget surplus of $21.6 billion as $23.6 billion would have to be spent on new reparations to Poland and Greece. A move like this would definitely be a boon to the Polish and Greek economies as they would be paid by the German government and would be able to invest that money into their own countries. However, depending on the agreements (if any are made) it could prove to be a critical dampener to the German economy as their GDP is only growing at a rate of about 2%.